Business Science UK wins GOLD for our work on TUI Econometrics in the Media Week Awards 2013

We created a new approach called Real World Attribution. An industry first, which combines commercially focused econometrics with direct attribution. We have since seen that, communications efficiency for Thomson and First Choice has increased by 60%. As more than half of sales are media driven, this has resulted in substantial business growth and as a direct result, budgets have increased by over 50% year on year.

TUI SPEND MONEY ACROSS AT LEAST 16 DIFFERENT CHANNELS THROUGHOUT THE YEAR.
It was imperative to understand which were working so that we could optimise our plans and drive the business forwards. This was particularly true for display where we were relying on linear tracking and impression based analytics which meant we were unable to isolate the true impact. In previous years, we had built models of visits and footfall but this was too far from point of purchase to make commercially viable decisions as the business is targeted on sales.

CHANGING OUR MODELS PROVED A DILEMMA BECAUSE MODELLING SALES IS A MUCH HARDER TASK GIVEN THE COMPLEXITIES WITH PRICING AND SEASONALITY IN THIS MARKET.
However, by thinking creatively, we realised it was possible if we built a series of different models. We therefore overhauled the entire project and built 26 detailed econometric models by product and sales channel. We employed state of the art techniques to minimise the impact of seasonal bias and worked with TUI finance team to gather all the pricing information available.
In an industry first, we realised that to also combine our online results with direct attribution results, would give overwhelming proof of the robustness of our models and ensure the client could and would confidently make decisions off the back of our analysis.

THE RESULTS WERE PHENOMENAL.
Using econometrics and micro digital attribution analysis showed that display was driving 25% more sales than our traditional linear tracking measured. For both methodologies to show the same impact was an incredibly strong proof point that display was working. Given these results, we spent 22% more on display, delivering 34k more sales per year, equating to £27m extra revenue with an efficiency saving of 33%.
This overwhelming proof meant that the client could confidently rely on our models and could take decisions on all our recommendations. Consequently, we have improved the efficiency of all brand communications by 60%, which is critical to the overall revenue growth that TUI has achieved, as we have proved that over half their sales are directly attributable to paid for communications.

The analysis that MediaCom now provides for us is integral to our communications planning and driving our business forwards. It allows us to understand the impact of each channel and helps us make the right choices to deliver the most optimal plan dependent on objectives
— Rebecca Edwards, TUI UK & Ireland Marketing Manager